Current Message	Return to posts
From: Denc 🗡
Should you?….. Investing.com -- ARK just deployed another $22.8M into SpaceX (SPCX) on Aug 5 — the same day the stock fell -13.61% to $108.27, just pennies above its 52-week low of $104.83. Meanwhile, Q2 revenues rose +92% YoY to $7.8B. That is a classic contrarian accumulation move — but the gap between Bernstein’s $248 target and Raymond James’s $800 tells you this is one of the most contested valuations on the Street right now. ARK’s Conviction Move On Aug 5, ARK snapped up 181,830 shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) for $22.8M — funding it by trimming Roblox ($17.3M), Palantir ($11.4M), and Shopify ($11M). Read more This wasn’t a passive rebalance. ARK sold three high-profile growth names to concentrate further into SpaceX — exactly when the stock was hitting a -32.5% one-month slide. That’s deliberate, high-conviction accumulation, not routine portfolio maintenance. The Q2 Story Behind the Dip The selloff is notable given the fundamentals. SpaceX reported Q2 on Aug 4: Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX): Last $108.27 (-13.61% Aug 5) || 52W Range: $104.83 — $225.64 || Market Cap: $1.43T || Q2 Revenue: $7.8B (+92% YoY) || Q2 EBITDA: $3.5B (+192% YoY) The company also accelerated its $1 trillion revenue target to 2030 (from 2031), driven by AI compute monetization at $30–$50/watt rather than just launch rates. Read more The dip looks like macro rotation and profit-taking from the recent high of $225 — not a fundamental deterioration. What the Analysts Are Saying The wide price target dispersion signals genuine uncertainty about how to value a company straddling rockets, satellites, and AI compute: Firm Rating Price Target Upside vs $108 Raymond James Strong Buy $800 +639% Bernstein Outperform $248 +129% Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight $246 +127% Mizuho Outperform $200 +85% Stifel Buy $190 +75% Raymond James’s $800 target is an outlier, but even the most conservative bull ($190, Stifel) sees +75% upside from current levels. The ARKX Connection If you’d rather gain exposure through a diversified vehicle, ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) now holds SpaceX as its #1 position at 7.7% weight. The ETF is up +23.83% over the past year and trades at $32.58 with a $759M AUM base — but note its beta of 1.76 makes it a high-volatility ride. Bull vs. Bear Scorecard Bull case: +92% revenue growth, +192% EBITDA growth, accelerated $1T target, near 52-week lows, every analyst rates it a Buy, ARK buying aggressively. Bear case: $1.43T market cap already prices in extraordinary execution. The stock is down -19.8% YTD and -52% from its 52-week high, suggesting the IPO euphoria has given way to sober valuation debates. The AI compute thesis — while compelling — is unproven at scale. The key tension: At $108, you’re buying SpaceX at a price last seen near its 52-week floor. ARK is betting that’s the margin of safety. The Street’s wide target range ($190–$800) suggests the market genuinely hasn’t figured out how to price "Starlink + AI datacenter in space" yet.

Current Thread	Author	Time
Should you?….....[more]	Denc 🗡	14:22:31

You must log in or register before you can post messages (you'll be returned to this page once logged in).